10% drop in the Liberal primary since the last election. This is consistent within seats where the Teals are challenging Liberal incumbents or candidates.
It’s also consistent across major parties. In some seats, their respective vote is holding up, whilst in others, there is significant volatility.
There is no evidence, in any of our work, to suggest the most recent statewide public poll, which placed Labor at 56% TPP is holding up for the incumbent government. That said, the attrition is not entirely being soaked up by the Liberal Party. Both, at this stage, seem to be suffering some level of electoral attrition.
The cause? Numerous but the underlying cause is a shift within Victoria, away from major parties. This poll provides insight into that volatility. You can download the full report and methodology here.
Note. The treatment question is defined clearly as that. As with our work during the federal election, treatment questions are a powerful insight into the potential electoral impact of a candidate. They accurately read the mood of seats like Goldstein, Kooyong and Wentworth.