The Coalition saw its vote increase by 3 per cent, from just under 34.5 to 37.5 while the Labor primary dropped by 1.5 per cent from 37 per cent to just under 35.5 per cent. However, we estimated no change to the two-party vote. How can this be? Some of these questions arise from people treating the ‘Other’ vote as a homogenous block, the composition of which does not change over time. However, this is not necessarily the case. Part of the reason for a lack of change in the two-party preferred vote was that there was no real increase in the total right of centre first preference vote share. Rather, votes moved around within the left and right. The Coalition primary was up about 3 points, but our sample also has support for the minor parties on the right, such as Family First, Freedom, Shooters, Fishers and Farmers and the Liberal Democrats declining by more than 4.5 per cent. We also see a drop on the small parties on the left — Animal Justice Party, Reason and the Victorian Socialists — which between them lost about 1 per cent of their primary vote according to our estimates. Meanwhile, the Greens, whose preferences vastly favour Labor (at a rate of more than 85 per cent), saw their vote increase by nearly 2.5 per cent.  An increase that almost exactly equals the drop in the Labor and minor parties of the left.

It should be kept in mind that this is a sample, and when we are talking about these very small parties who often win 1 or 2 per cent (and often less than this) in a sample of 1,000 respondents, we’re talking about 10 or 20 respondents, or less. This is why we don’t break out the smaller parties, especially when we are reporting vote by demographic subgroups (ie, by age and education). However, RedBridge polls have proven very accurate at the recent Voice referendum and Tasmanian State election, so this result may be meaningful.

What this means is that while on the surface the two-party preferred vote looks very stable, underneath there may be a lot of churn on both the left and right. The minor party right has collapsed by a similar amount to the swing towards the Coalition. At present, this is strengthening the Coalition by boosting their primary vote, and could undermine Labor in some seats, if their primary vote continues to drop.

The full report can be downloaded via this link RedBridge Report – Vic State political analysis 

Full (Not rounded) estimates for each party

Party Estimate 2024 Actual 2022 Swing
Coalition 37.54 34.37 3.17
Labor 35.33 37.03 -1.7
The Greens 13.78 11.5 2.28
An independent candidate 6.48 5.44 1.04
Another party 2.75 0.9 1.85
Animal Justice Party 2.22 2.51 -0.29
Family First 0.67 3.05 -2.38
Reason 0.61 0.3 0.31
Victorian Socialists 0.53 1.35 -0.82
Freedom Party 0.09 1.71 -1.62
Liberal Democrats 0 0.35 -0.35
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers 0 0.32 -0.32
Democratic Labor Party 0 1.17 -1.17