Topline results indicate minimal movement in overall vote share since the last election, masking localised shifts. Labor is losing primary votes, particularly in outer suburbs and regional centers, while the Coalition has gained small primary vote swings across most areas, except in rural electorates. Despite these shifts, major seat gains for the Coalition in the House of Representatives are not evident, nor are there significant losses for Labor. Although the Coalition is within striking distance of some outer suburban and regional seats held by Labor, such as Robertson, Gilmore, and Lyons, they do not appear to be reclaiming the seats they lost at the last election. Additionally, Labor is competitive in some Liberal-held seats, where higher levels of education and incomes are present, continuing the 2022 trend. This electoral geography makes it challenging for the Coalition to regain government or even appear competitive. Using current electorate boundaries, a hung parliament or a Labor majority are almost equally likely outcomes according to this model. If a minority government results, Labor is still more likely to be the largest party in parliament. At present, there is almost no chance that the Coalition will win more seats than Labor.
Multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) report can be downloaded here Accent-RedBridge MRP—May-2024—for-web (1). The joint media release for Accent Research and Redbridge can be downloaded here Media-release—Accent-RedBridge-MRP—May-2024—for-web
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